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  • šŸ” The Numbers Look Dramatic — But Here’s What’s Really Happening

šŸ” The Numbers Look Dramatic — But Here’s What’s Really Happening

Real Estate Issue #51 - Davis County’s average price jumped $150K, sold homes plunged... and neither number tells the whole story.

Good morning, and happy Saturday! šŸ”šŸ

I hope you’ve had a good week and are easing into the weekend a little this morning.

Thanks for spending a few minutes with us here in Home Sweet Buzz. Grab your morning beverage, get comfy, and let’s take a look at what’s happening around the local real estate market this week.

Brought to byTodd Porter, SURE Synergy United Real Estate Group

šŸ” What We Choose to Protect

This week carries a little more weight than most.

Yesterday marked 25 years since September 11, 2001. And this week also marks one year since the tragic killing of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University.

They were very different events, but both are reminders of how deeply we value the people, places, communities, and things that make us feel grounded.

For most families, home is one of those things.

It’s more than an address. It represents years of work, memories, stability, and, for many families, one of the largest pieces of their financial future.

And when it comes to protecting that investment, good information matters.

Especially when the headlines don’t tell the whole story.

šŸ“Š This Week’s Davis County Market

At first glance, a couple of this week’s numbers look dramatic.

Sold homes dropped from 75 last week to 48 this week.

Failed sales dropped from 58 to 42.

But before anyone assumes the market suddenly fell off a cliff, there’s an important detail:

September just started.

In this data set, Sold and Failed Sale totals reset at the beginning of each month and then build week by week.

So comparing this week’s early-September totals to last week’s end-of-August numbers is a little like comparing part of a paycheck to the entire month’s income.

The smaller number doesn’t necessarily signal weakness.

It’s mostly the calendar.

And that’s exactly why looking beyond a single headline matters.

šŸ  So What Is the Market Actually Doing?

The numbers that don’t reset tell us much more.

  • Active listings: 1,066 — up just 2 from last week

  • Under contract: 352 — up 10

  • Average days on market: 68.92

  • Median days on market: 46

  • Active-to-pending ratio: 3.03, down from 3.11 last week

In other words?

Not much changed.

Inventory is essentially flat. More homes went under contract. Homes are moving slightly faster. And the active-to-pending ratio has eased back from the seven-month high we saw a couple of weeks ago.

That gives us a much better picture of the actual market temperature than the September sold count alone.

šŸ’° And About That $750,925 Average Sold Price…

Here’s another number that could create a pretty dramatic headline.

The average sold price jumped from $592,323 last week to $750,925 this week.

Did Davis County home values suddenly jump more than $150,000?

No.

Only 48 homes have sold countywide so far this month, and several high-end sales had an outsized impact on the average.

Centerville alone had four sales averaging nearly $1.94 million, which pulled the entire county average upward.

That’s why the median sold price of $550,000 may be much more useful right now.

The median simply tells us the middle point of the homes that sold, making it less vulnerable to a handful of unusually expensive properties.

It’s a good reminder:

Averages can get weird when the sample is small.

šŸ“ Your Market Is More Local Than You Think

Countywide numbers are helpful, but they still don’t determine what will happen with your individual home.

For example, Layton’s 11 sales this week closed at an average of approximately 99.86% of list price.

Meanwhile, the countywide list-to-sold ratio dipped to 94.96%.

Those two numbers can exist at the same time because every city, neighborhood, price range, and property is behaving a little differently.

That’s why asking, ā€œIs it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?ā€ often isn’t enough.

A better question is:

What is happening with homes like mine, in my neighborhood, in my price range?

That’s the number that matters.

šŸ› ļø Preparation Still Matters

One thing hasn’t changed much at all:

Homes that are priced correctly, prepared well, and positioned properly tend to give sellers a much better chance of protecting their equity.

That’s the thinking behind our Fix & List and Certified Turnkey Homeā„¢ programs, as well as the EPIC Home Value System.

The goal isn’t to guess what your home might be worth based on a countywide average.

It’s to understand what your specific home is likely worth and what, if anything, could improve your position before you make a move.

Your plan is pretty simple:

  1. Know your real number.
    County averages can be useful, but a true valuation should consider your home, neighborhood, condition, and comparable sales.

  2. Prepare before the sign goes in the yard.
    Small repairs, presentation, pricing, and strategy can make a meaningful difference once buyers start comparing your home with everything else available.

  3. Get clarity before making a big decision.
    Whether you’re thinking about selling now, later this fall, or sometime next year, knowing where you stand gives you options.

šŸ” The Bottom Line

This week’s Davis County numbers don’t show a market suddenly changing direction.

They show why context matters.

A monthly reset made the sold numbers look unusually low.

A handful of luxury sales made the average price look unusually high.

But underneath those headline numbers, inventory remained nearly flat, pending sales increased, and homes moved slightly faster.

That’s a much calmer story.

And for homeowners, that may be the most important takeaway this week:

Protecting what you’ve built doesn’t require reacting to every headline.

It requires good information, thoughtful preparation, and a plan based on what is actually happening around your home.

Want a straight-talk look at where your home stands today?

Text 801-755-1882 for a no-pressure equity check.

If for any reason, property tax concerns, estate planning, wealth evaluation, you are wondering what the present value of your home; scan this QR code or go to https://sureut.com/epicreport and we will promptly provide you with our detailed professionally engineered EPIC Report:

šŸ’¬ Karen from Kaysville asked:

"I saw last week's report said the median sold price in Davis County dropped almost 3% in one week. Does that mean I should slash my asking price before I even list?"


šŸ‘‰ Todd’s Answer:

No — and this is a perfect example of why one week’s median price doesn’t tell the whole story.

Last week, Davis County’s median sold price dropped from $529,625 to $515,000, about 2.76%. But at the same time, homes were selling for an average of 99.15% of their asking price — the highest level we’ve seen.

Those numbers together tell a very different story: well-priced homes are still selling very close to full asking price.

The median dropped because of the particular mix of homes that happened to close that week — not because buyers suddenly decided every home in Davis County was worth 3% less.

And this week proves the point. The median bounced right back to $550,000, while a few higher-end sales pushed the average sold price even higher.

That’s why I wouldn’t slash your price based on a weekly headline.

What matters is what comparable homes in your Kaysville neighborhood and price range are actually selling for.That’s what our EPIC Home Value System is designed to uncover.

Price from the real local data first. Reacting to one headline before you even list can cost you real equity.

Got a Real Estate question?
šŸ‘‰ Submit a question for next week’s edition 
Call me at 801-755-1882, and let’s build your
custom plan to win in this market.

"The Most American Thing You'll Ever Own"

šŸ‘‡ Click pic below to hear Todd’s Message!
(Message changes each week!)
ā¬‡ļø ā¬‡ļø ā¬‡ļø

šŸ“±Call/Text: 801-755-1882
šŸ“§ Email: [email protected]

Thanks for buzzing with us this morning! šŸ

I hope you get a chance to slow down a little this weekend, enjoy the people you love, and maybe even get outside while these beautiful September days are still hanging around.

Have a wonderful weekend, and I’ll see you right back here next Saturday in Home Sweet Buzz! šŸ”šŸ

Brenda šŸ

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